Battle for the Senate in 2024

The 2024 United States Senate election will be held on the 5th of November, the same day as the election for President and the House of Representatives too. Thirty-three of these seats will be up for contest for this round. Going into the election, Democrats are on defense here to defend their gains in 2018, the last time these seats were in contention. What are the hotly contested seats that have been making national headlines? Are there any retiring senators? Would that make a difference?

Retiring incumbents

Democratic Senators Cardin, Carper and Stabenow from Maryland, Delaware and Michigan will not be seeking re-election this time around, as are Republican Senators Braun and Romney from Indiana and Utah respectively. Two former Democrat-now turned Independent senators in Senators Sinema and Manchin in both Arizona and West Virginia will not be seeking re-election. The most notable of these bunch, potentially the most consequential are Senators Stabenow and Sinema - and they will be expounded on, individually later on.

Michigan

First on our list is Senator Debbie Stabenow's seat representing Michigan. First elected in 2000 on the back of Vice President Al Gore carrying the state, Stabenow has been an uncontroversial rank-and-file Democratic Senator that has been a clear asset to the Democratic caucus with Senate Majority leader Schumer elevating her to multiple leadership positions. With her retirement, an open primary happened in the Michigan Democratic Party for this seat and Representative Elissa Slotkin won the primary. On the Republican side, former House member Mike Rogers won his primary which makes for a showdown between Slotkin and Rogers.

With decreases in split ticket voting and with Michigan being a swing state in national elections, whichever party's candidate carries Michigan in the Presidential election, it is highly likely that the same party will win this senate seat. At this point in time, Vice President Harris is leading in the polls by 2 (D+2) while Slotkin is up by 5 (D+5). If this holds true, Slotkin will be elected to succeed Stabenow and Michigan's 15 electoral votes will go to the Vice President, significantly boosting the chances of a Kamala Harris Presidency. The question now would be if Slotkin, a moderate Democrat who is outpolling Harris will be able to help carry the Vice President to victory in the Great Lake state.

Arizona

Next on the hotly contested race is Arizona. Retiring Senator Kyrsten Sinema who was elected in 2018 to succeed the then retiring Senator Jeff Flake during Trump's midterm election, has been a thorn in Senate majority Leader, Schumer's side. With maverick views on the minimum wage and on the filibuster, she grew unpopular not only in the Arizona Democratic Party, but also in the state of Arizona itself, leading her to not seek reelection. In the Democratic primary, progressive and Marine veteran congressman Ruben Gallego won unopposed. On the other side, failed candidate for the governorship, Kari Lake, won the Republican Party nomination with 55% of the vote.

Arizona has increasingly been trending into becoming a purple state. Once a solid red state, voting for John McCain, Mitt Romney and both Bush candidates for President and voting McCain and Flake for Senate, they have sent two Democrats to the Senate by 2020 and voted for Joe Biden in the same year. With Arizona being widely seen as a virtual tossup between the Vice President and former President Trump, all eyes are on the Senate race. Gallego is winning in the polls by anywhere between 7 points to 11 points. With a Senate win here, two things will happen. The first will be that Democrats would have defended a very vulnerable Senate seat and have rejected “MAGA-ism”. The second, is that the Vice President will be favoured to win in Arizona, carried by a strong Gallego vote, which could potentially open up the sunbelt path to victory instead of just relying on the blue wall to get to 270 electoral votes.

Texas

Here is a seat that Democrats are on offense to compensate for a very likely West Virginia loss. Long time incumbent Senator Ted Cruz is facing a hotly contested Senate race against congressman Colin Allred who easily won the Democratic primary. The incumbent is a Senator who has one of the worst unfavourable ratings with 42% very unfavourable rating.

Texas, a long Republican stronghold, has shifted toward the Democrats due to population growth and demographic changes. This was shown in Beto O'Rourke challenging Cruz last time and only lost by 3 points the last time out in 2018. With a virtual toss up in Texas between Allred and Cruz, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee poured nearly $80 million into TV ads to help the Allred campaign. This is shaping up to be one of the most expensive Senate races for this cycle. Cruz, once a pragmatic Republican, has embraced extreme “MAGAism” and is calling for radical legislation such as legislation to ban abortion, although his Lone Star State wants to expand and protect it. Should Allred win, this will be the first time in 30 years that a Democrat won election to a statewide office. Pulling off an upset isn't easy but if Democrats can do this, it is likely that they will hold the Senate.

Ohio

The last state that will be touched on where Democrats are playing defense. Incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown will be going up against Republican Bernie Moreno for the Ohio Senate seat. First elected in 2006, ousting the current governor, Mike Dewine, he has been a mostly rank and file Democrat with progressive tendencies.

Of course, one of the major reasons why this will be national news is because Ohio is JD Vance's home state, Donald Trump's running mate. Once a bellwether of the United States, Ohio has increasingly become more conservative and Republican-friendly. Last time out, in 2022, Democrats tried to win statewide in Ohio for the first time since 2018 by running Tim Ryan, a pro-labour and moderate Democrat in the open Senate seat left by the retiring Republican Senator Rob Portman. However, he was defeated by, you guessed it, James David Vance. Brown, however, ever the competent campaigner will be going up against an expected Republican tide, with the former President likely to carry the Buckeye state. Brown is no stranger to winning in hostile environments, defeating his 2018 challenger convincingly by 7 points. Winning here, will not only help Democrats chances of retaining Senate control, but it just might be the thing Kamala needs to help swing Ohio toward the Democrats, even if she does not win this time around.

Florida

The final state given attention here is Florida. Incumbent Senator Rick Scott, the then governor, unseated then-incumbent Senator Bill Nelson in a close race in 2018 by a marginal 0.12 points. For the Democrats, former Representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell won her primary in convincing fashion.

Obviously, Florida is Trump's home state. Like Ohio, Florida used to be a bellwether state with hotly contested national races, especially in the 2000 election with Bush v Gore but has seen a rightward shift in their politics. Two years ago, incumbent Republican governor Ron DeSantis easily won reelection by nearly 20 points where he famously claimed that Florida is “where woke goes to die”. However, Mucarsel-Powell has one thing going in her favour: an abortion ballot measure. Florida Amendment 4 is an amendment to limit government interference with abortion. All across the nation, be it in strong Democratic states or ruby red Republican states, whenever abortion is on the ballot, the pro-choice measure wins. If Amendment 4 is going to drive people to the polls in Florida, there's a nonzero chance that the Senate election gets tighter for Scott. The Senate race is a virtual tie, as per the polls and this should be good news for Democrats. Taking out Rick Scott would be huge as, not only is it a Democratic pickup, it will also take out a potential Senate Republican leader challenger to succeed the retiring leader, Mitch McConnell.