Can Labour Unions be the start of the Democrats rebuilding the New Deal Coalition?

The coalition that swept Democrats to victory in the wake of the Great Depression and up to the 70s was built by one of America's greatest Presidents - President Franklin Delano Roosevelt. His coalition was a huge mismatch of different groups vying for different things in the administration - and ultimately was unsustainable. Now, more than half a century later, with labour unions being back on the campaign trail as an issue, can Democrats rebuild a "New Deal"-esque coalition that lasts this time around?

Roosevelt's New Deal Coalition

In the wake of the Great Depression which saw the United States unemployment reach to 25%, Herbert Hoover's small government, laissez-faire approach led him to essentially stand by and do nothing as the economy tanked. By late 1931, it was clear that Hoover would most likely not win a second term in the Oval Office. This helped an up and coming New York governor by the name of Franklin Delano Roosevelt to win a landslide election in 1932. He eventually won a second, third and fourth term in 1936, 1940 and 1944 until his death in 1945 - all on the backs of one electoral coalition: The New Deal Coalition.

The New Deal Coalition, named after Roosevelt's most impactful economic policy - the New Deal, was a coalition of many different interest groups: Labour Unions, Blue-collar workers, big city machines, racial and religious minorities, white Southerners, and the intelligentsia. This was considered a huge deal as the Democrats up until that point had not won the labour union vote in northern industrial states like Pennsylvania and Michigan outright* since before the Civil War. The blue collar worker and big city machines played a huge part in winning the Midwest since Democrats knew that winning cities with only the intelligentsia was not good enough - they had to win the entire state, and that's why they curried favours with both the workers and the industrial businesses.

*Michigan's 5 of 14 electors sent to the Electoral College, voted for the Democratic Presidential nominee in 1892. The state was still carried by the Republican candidate in the Presidential Election.

It wasn't until the 1970s where labour unions were decreasing in power because the economy transitioned from an industrial one to a more service-based economy, while White Southerners gave in into their more racist and bigoted tendencies and left the Democratic Party in droves (and Nixon and Reagan implemented the infamous "Southern Strategy"), that's when workers started voting for Republicans.

The rise of Ronald Reagan and his ideology of neoliberalism sealed the deal for the New Deal Coalition. There was a small rejuvenation of the coalition in the wake of the 2008 recession and the Barack Obama's presidency, but rebuilding a coalition, even Obama's coalition-lite would be tough in one election - especially as Labour Unions were not a large campaign issue back in 2008. However, the tides of politics are changing.

Labour Unions are back in fashion

The sitting President, Joe Biden has tried to put Labour Unions back on the campaign trail. Born in Scranton, Pennsylvania - a reasonably working class town - he has been able to portray himself as a man of the people, to some people's view. He was the first President to appear on a picket line when striking United Auto Workers (UAW) union members were demanding a 40% pay increase over the next four years. Typically, Presidents have always wants to balance out business interests and worker demands , but thankfully, he decided to show his pro-labour ideals by standing by with workers.

He looks to - at the time of writing - have killed a Japanese takeover of US Steel, again standing by workers who have shown concern about the Nippon Steel-US Steel merger agreement**. More yet, he had used executive orders to improve conditions for work on federal projects, including mandating the hire of unionized workers. This leaves the unions once again trusting the Democratic Party - and by extension, the current Democratic Party nominee for President, Vice President Kamala Harris.

**I have covered this topic in detail in my article for this website entitled: "Nippon Steel Takeover Likely to Fail: Massive Win for Labour Unions".

Can Kamala rebuild the coalition?

Vice President Harris has selected Governor Tim Walz as her running mate in the 2024 elections. Governor Walz, who was a card carrying member of his local teachers union has further strengthened the rhetoric that this ticket is a massive boon for workers and labour unions across the nation. She has signaled no intent of reversing or changing President Biden's pro-labour messaging - in fact, she has doubled down on it.

The Democratic Party, as of late, have included the intelligentsia, ethnic and religious minorities, and most recently of all, Labour Unions. This will massively help her chances of winning the Presidency through the industrial states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. This could be the new voting bloc of the Democratic Party that will model Roosevelt's New Deal coalition. Can she get the turnout to turn the tide and win the Presidency, 50 days from election day? Is this bloc going to be a bloc that is more solid than Roosevelt's New Deal coalition, whereby they stick around for decades, maybe even centuries? Only time will tell but one thing is for certain.