Election Special: Five key states to look out for

Joe Biden unseated incumbent President Donald Trump in 2020 by winning the Electoral College by 306 to 232, with 270 being the minimum number required for victory in the election. This time around, President Biden will not be running for re-election, like most sitting American Presidents in the modern era have done, and has instead given up the nominee spot to Vice President Kamala Harris in July. As election day is only about 40 days away, here are five crucial states to look out for.

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania is the state with the largest number of electoral votes in the midwest. Traditionally a blue wall state, it voted for the Republican candidate (Trump) in 2016, for the first time since 1988 when George Bush Senior won the election against a very weak Michael Dukakis. Even though the Keystone state has half the 38 electoral votes it had a century ago, it is still a very important state to win. With the likely veto of the sale of U.S. Steel, which is essentially the heartbeat of Pittsburgh, still on people's minds and the election of Governor Josh Shapiro in the state two years ago, gives Democrats the slight edge. The volume of early voting and mail voting is expected to be less this time around, so expect an earlier call for the state of Pennsylvania. Harris is expected to drive up turnout with the Shapiro coalition: suburban women, intelligentsia, unionized workers but it will be close.

Prediction: D+2

Michigan

Similar to the Keystone State, it voted for Donald Trump in 2016 on an anti-NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) and TPP (Trans Pacific Partnership) agenda. Another blue wall state, its specialty was not in iron and steel, but rather, in manufacturing automobiles. With the knowledge that the Vice President supported “ol' working class” Joe Biden when he walked the picket line in Wayne County, Michigan with striking UAW members, there is reason to believe that his support amongst white working class union workers would transfer to Kamala Harris. With Michigan's 15 electoral votes, the Vice President will be looking at this state and thinking about how to drive up support with the Whitmer coalition, the blueprint to defeat MAGA-ism in Michigan. Suburban women and white blue collar workers are key to victory in this state, win that and Michigan is won.

Prediction: D+3

Wisconsin

The last of the blue wall states, Wisconsin carries 10 electoral votes, the only blue wall state to keep its number of electoral votes from the 2020 presidential election (the other two lost one). Even though it only be 10 electoral votes, it was the most right-leaning state in the Midwest (percentage of win in relation to votes cast), with Joe Biden winning by less than a point. Joe Biden won there by racking up huge scores in both Madison and Milwaukee and Governor Tony Evers cruised to victory in 2022 with a 3.4 point win state-wide using the same strategy. This time around, Harris should outdo that to account for margin-for-error, especially in such a crucial state. There are a few counties outside Milwaukee known as the “Wau” counties, who are traditionally suburban and traditionally Republican but have been trending Democrat since 2016. Can she win those counties to ensure a win? It will be by wafer-thin margins if she pulls it off.

Prediction: D+1.2

Texas

Hot take: Texas is in play for the 2024 presidential cycle. Its 40 Electoral Votes make it the second most prized state for the presidency. According to the Morning Consult, and within the span of 10 days among likely voters, Harris gained 3 points while Trump lost 2 points. Even though Trump is up by 4 points according to the same poll, in the Senate election, the race is a lot closer for Democratic challenger Colin Allred against Republican incumbent Ted Cruz. Coming into 2024, Democrats are attempting to defend senate seats in states like West Virginia and Montana, states where Republicans win by Assad-margins making their defense of the Senate very hard, even likely near-impossible. In Texas, however, they can offset one of these likely losses. If Democrats succeed in playing offense here, there is a non-zero chance that Vice President Harris wins the state due to the decrease in prevalence of split-ticket voting. To win in Texas, a state that has not voted Democratic in a Presidential election since voting for Jimmy Carter in the 1976 election - The Vice President must win hard in the cities and win over the suburbs. However, that looks unlikely. Senate race, however - looks plausible.

Prediction: R+3, Colin Allred unseats Ted Cruz (D+0.5)

North Carolina

North Carolina is a state closely watched by many pollsters, not only because it opens a sunbelt path to victory for the Vice-President but also because this was the state that Trump most narrowly won in 2020, by 1.3 points. The state also has a governor's race going on between Attorney-General Josh Stein and Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson. Mark Robinson, the Republican, has had his share of controversy including using misogynistic language against women who want an abortion and was recently found out to possess indecent images of children. Stein is up by 14 points in recent polls and that could put the Vice President over the top. The state, who last voted for a Democrat for a certain Barack Obama in 2008, the strategy is to win more suburban white women that have felt alienated by the rhetoric of Donald Trump and Mark Robinson. With Stein so far ahead in the race, Harris can ride to victory on the back of his numbers

Prediction: D+2, Stein defeats Robinson (D+10)