Game plan 2029: ReformUK's path to victory

By Laurie Noble - https://members.parliament.uk/member/5091/portrait, CC BY 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=150506060

Nigel Farage at this year’s ReformUK party conference claimed that they could win the next general election. To properly break through and forever change British politics, the electoral strategy needs to be perfectly formulated in the next five years. There are two paths forward: like the AfD in Germany, maintaining a low 20 percent in the polls and politically isolated from other parties; or like the National Rally in France, winning minor elections and consistently coming second just barely behind. So how could they do it?

ReformUK did participate in the 2019 general election, under the branding of the Brexit party, but they only contested a few seats and were a very tiny machine. They are fundamentally a continuation of the ideals of UKIP (United Kingdom Independence Party), also built by Nigel Farage, which advocated for withdrawal from the UK (Brexit) and general anti-immigration. Their success in the early 2010s saw them win European parliamentary elections, over 4 million votes in the 2015 election, and forced then prime minister David Cameron to hold the ill-fated Brexit referendum in 2016.

Essentially a newcomer in the 2024 election, ReformUK received 4 million votes— the same as the very-much-established-by-that-point UKIP had in 2015, and despite a considerably lower turnout. They received 14% of the popular vote— lower than many polling averages had predicted them to receive, around 20 percent, and some particularly interesting polls putting them ahead of the Conservatives. UKIP’s greatest extent in parliament was one seat, a Tory defector which they managed to retain in 2015. Reform won five seats, and Farage is now a member of parliament after several failed attempts.

Arguably this is the best result for a party to the right of the Conservatives in political history and this makes it difficult to immediately see where they can expand their voter base to. It is crucial to understand who current Reform voters are: Conservatives who had become disillusioned to the Tories but unable to see Labour’s vision; people from across the political spectrum concerned with migration both legal and illegal; those protesting their votes; and Conservatives who believe the current Tory leadership is too left-wing (somehow).

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First, they need to hold onto their current base. There’s always a risk that a party is just a gimmick in one election. If, in their leadership election, the Conservatives elect somebody to the clear right such as Badenoch or Jenrick, they could be in the position to win back trust with disillusioned Conservatives and those to the right, and pull support from under Reform’s rug.

Losing the top policy issue of immigration could be a massive concern too. I am sure they will be able to maintain it, but however unlikely, the Conservatives could suddenly come up with the best plan ever for solving illegal immigration. Labour have five years to figure out a plan to either alleviate the effects of cost of living, which Reform blame on immigration, or crack down on illegal migration. If Labour can effectively turn it around, it might not be a major issue to campaign in the next election.

Alternatively, these are opportunities for Reform too. Reform has a lot of ammunition from the last 14 years to point to where Conservatives failed on immigration, as evidence, and win the immigration argument. Luckily for Farage, Labour are not very competent and the immigration issue is very complicated and hard to fix— and there’s nothing good old 'propaganda' won’t be able to fix. If imagery of migrants crossing the English Channel can’t be utilised anymore, legal migration will be targeted, which it already has (in the Reform manifesto, promising freezes to non-essential immigration).

They could paint a Badenoch-esque Tory leadership as ‘Reform-lite’, where you’d be better off voting for the real thing to receive real reform and not more Tory lies. On the other hand, if the Tories elect a moderate leader, Reform can pincer a lot of votes to the right. Those fed up with the ‘centrist political system’, where Labour and Tory policies begin to merge a lot more, might cast a vote for Reform.

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Ideal voting blocs for Reform to tap into will be the working class who are worse off, more of the older generation and usually loyal Tories, and apathetic people who did not turn out to vote this election (as turnout is down around 7 percentage points).

To do this, they need to essentially replace the Conservative party as the main right wing political party in the eyes of all generations. They can achieve this through a delegitimization of the current Conservative party. Media may play a huge role in this, such as GB News and other outlets, and it may depend on who the next Tory leader is. Playing to apathetic people, their offer of new bold change should be clear against the minute differences between Labour & Conservative manifestos, and they need an enthusiastic bloc willing to campaign on their behalf, as has happened.

Their best bet though might be the Labour government itself. The Conservatives have done a great decade-long reason to vote ReformUK, and now they will be hoping that Labour is next to destroy their credibility in office. The biggest threat to them is the parliamentary term ending in 2029 with living standards up across the board and enthusiasm on the rise— nobody votes desperately for change when the status quo is getting better. Would culture wars be enough then?

They may need to moderate themselves better though. A massive barrier to recruiting people from the left is the rhetoric of some supporters as demonstrated in the July riots. People know the Reform party now, they know the divisive figures at the top like Farage and Anderson, and avoid it sometimes without knowing the ins and outs of actual policy.

An interesting question is whether Reform's embrace of electoral reform, like the Liberal Democrats and the Greens have been campaigning for for years, has dampened enthusiasm among the left for it— this change would benefit the far-right massively. Perhaps creating a temporary 'unholy alliance' with progressive parties to push for PR could result in an increased in seat count based on change in electoral system alone. As Brexit demonstrated, Farage is a fantastic salesmen for one off ideas.

The party claimed that the vetting process used for the 2024 general election, because it was surprisingly held months early, was subpar and led to candidates getting through that were being ‘vetted by the media’ and exposed for indecent things. With a new vetting process, and the moderation of candidates' speech, and the usage of dog whistles, the candidates next time round would need to be less attackable if they want to be considered a serious party. The party announced this week that they would be introducing memberships and some party democracy, which it previously lacked, which also helps in this department.

In conclusion, the path forward for Reform heavily depends on other parties, but it isn't over for them either way. Being relatively new, they have plenty of flexibility in their platforms and public figures— this is only just beginning unfortunately. Unlike other parties, Reform's public perception is detached from their seat count. Who would think based on the airtime they get that they are the joint 6th largest parliamentary group, tied with the Democratic Unionists in Northern Ireland? With the large amount of Tufton Street and American money supporting them, their future successes are closer than we think, and countering their rising influences should be a top priority for all parties.