Humza Yousaf – How Long Left?
The First Minister of Scotland, their devolved prime minister, is in deep trouble this week and will potentially lose his job after only 13 months in the role. Following the 2021 elections, the SNP won a plurality- not majority- of seats in Holyrood (the Scottish parliament). Back then, the party was run by juggernaut and long-term leader & political strategist Nicola Sturgeon, and she signed the Bute House Agreement with the Scottish Greens. This was a coalition agreement to reach a majority government and the two parties would compromise on progressive and green issues.
However, Sturgeon resigned in March 2023 precedingly very shortly her and her husband's arrest over party financial issues. While Sturgeon was released without charge, it deeply affected the polling of the SNP, and loomed large over the leadership contest.
Humza Yousaf came out on top in the internal election, winning 52% of the vote against his two opponents Kate Forbes and Ash Regan. Yousaf styled himself as the continuity candidate, hoping to continue the Bute House Agreement and much of Sturgeon’s left-wing policies. This contrasted with the more centrist or right-wing views of Forbes and Regan. Forbes being catholic and having some certain beliefs about gay people, and Regan eventually defecting to the right-wing Alba party after her defeat.
It has been a rocky year for Yousaf and he hasn’t proved himself to be particularly savvy as a leader. Polling has not recovered to levels anywhere close to Sturgeon’s, and in the last few weeks Labour overtook the SNP as the largest party in Scottish voting intention polls. I believe this has potentially caused this ill judged political move.
The end of power-sharing
Yesterday, Yousaf ended the Bute House Agreement and thus the coalition with the Scottish Greens. He stated that the SNP would continue as a minority government. This decision comes after the Scottish Greens announced prior that they would hold an internal party vote on whether to continue on with the power-sharing arrangements.
The vote by the Green membership was because of two recent developments. First was a decision by the Scottish government to ditch a key climate target– to reduce carbon emissions by 75 percent by 2030– after a report believed it was no longer possible. Another blow to the coalition was the Cass Report whose recommendations led to puberty blocks facing an indefinite pause on prescriptions to new gender dysphoric children.
The Greens champion both climate policies (obviously, look at their name) and trans rights– having separated from the Green party of England and Wales in some part due to widespread transphobia there. However, Yousaf’s decision yesterday means this vote will no longer likely occur.
His decision to do this by himself means that neither the Scottish Greens or SNP membership will be able to vote on the Bute House Agreement’s continuation, angering some. Speaking on the decision to end the power-sharing agreement, Yousaf stated that “the SNP needs the freedom and flexibility to ensure that we can move Scotland forward. We need to speak to the country with one voice. Our voice.”
Meanwhile, one of the Scottish Greens co-leaders Patrick Harvie said that the SNP has capitulated to, “the most reactionary, backward-looking forces” in their recent decisions.
Analysis and future
Yousaf may have wanted to separate the SNP from the Scottish Greens due to polling concerns. For some median voters who think wasting money on climate change prevention, are transphobic, or don’t believe it should be such a core principle, ditching the Greens could create a separation between the policies.
A minority SNP government could create its own identity and move to the centre to try and pick up disenfranchised voters or those who have switched to the Scottish Labour party. The SNP could potentially blame the Greens on some unpopular legislation, such as the Hate Crime bill recently passed, and rebrand themselves to regain in the polls.
However, this may prove to be a disastrous decision. The Scottish Conservatives, led by Douglas Ross, moved to a motion of no confidence in First Minister Humza Yousef soon after. The Scottish Greens announced they would vote against the government.
The SNP’s 63 seats in the Scottish parliament is not enough to stay in power if every other MSP votes against them. However, the Alba party’s sole MSP, the aforementioned leadership candidate Ash Regan, could bring the confidence issue to a tie. A key question now is whether Regan will sink Humza Yousaf’s career?
After Regan’s defection, Yousaf said that it was “no great loss” to the SNP. Regan could choose this moment to revel in revenge and boot her former opponent out of office unceremoniously. Although, she could use it to her advantage to force Yousaf to pass more right-wing legislation or potentially a position in government.
Although she could potentially benefit from ousting Yousaf by bringing in a more conservative SNP leader into the role of first minister, she could also be inadvertently triggering an extraordinary election later this year if the legislature can’t select a new First Minister within a month. As she was a defection, there’s no guarantee she would be re-elected in such a case.
The decision of Regan will likely come from the political operations of Alex Salmond, the party’s leader. He is a former First Minister of Scotland and the leader before Nicola Sturgeon. He left the party to create his own pro-independence splinter group a few years ago.
A tie in the Scottish parliament is usually broken by the Presiding Officer, a Scottish Green, although they’ll likely act impartially to keep the status quo of a minority government. But nothing is stopping a seismic decision for the presiding officer to come out against the government too. So potentially Regan may not be enough to save Yousaf– but it is the only chance he has.
There is of course a possibility SNP members rebel and vote against the government too but it is unlikely. Furthermore, it is key to mention that if an extraordinary election is held this year, it does not delay the next scheduled elections in 2026. Therefore, a snap election now would mean just a two year term for the victors. Nevertheless, the Conservatives, Labour, and Liberal Democrats are all ready for early elections after nearly two decades of SNP rule in Scotland.
How this plays out we will see, but it seems to have certainly ended Humza Yousaf’s career as First Minister. What was he thinking? How long does he have left?
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