Is it Over for Justin Trudeau?
As we approach the midterm of Canada’s parliamentary cycle, it is important to reflect on both the polls and the state of the nation and ask ourselves, who will be the next Prime Minister? If it’s up to Pierre Poilievre, the current head of the largest Conservative party in Canada, it’ll be him. And the polls seem to be backing him up on that. In fact, Prime Minister Trudeau’s standing in public opinion polling has fallen back so far that it is reasonable that the Liberals may not even become the official opposition in the next parliament. Which begs to say, what happened, what can the Liberals, if anything, do, and is it really over already?
So first, what happened? Canada, like many western countries in the world, has had a difficult time coming out of the coronavirus pandemic and back into normalcy, much like the Conservative Party in the UK, and the Democratic Party in the US, Canadian Liberals have had a tough time selling that the economy, which is currently riddled by high inflation and especially high housing prices in Canada, is actually growing. This despite the fact that employment has gone up significantly compared to the worst days of COVID-19. Inflation, despite what it seems in a grocery store, has actually gone down too. The sad part about this is that, just because the rate that prices are going up has stabilized, doesn’t mean those prices will go back down. Another unfortunate part of this for the Liberals is that Canadians are just tired of liberalism, after nine successive years of Liberal rule, and three general election wins for the liberal party (two of which the Liberals ended up winning despite being just barely behind the Conservative parties vote total), has led to understandable voter fatigue. All of these unfortunate situations for the governing Liberals have led to a dissatisfied populace, looking for answers, and they have certainly found them with the CPC’s new leader, Pierre Poilievre, who’s charismatic appeal to the populace has led the Conservatives to skyrocket to landslide territory in General Election polling.
Now, what can the Liberals do about it? Basically, wait, and hope that the economy improves for the best, and that they are not as unlucky as Biden and their southern neighbors, who consistently believe that the economy is faring worse than it actually is. I know to many progressives and liberals that this is an uninspiring answer, but there is very little that a government that has been in power for nine consecutive years can do to shift the blame off of them for a largely poorly performing economy. Bread and butter issues are not a good issue for the Liberals right now, the best hope for them in their attempt to hold onto power for another five years in power is that it becomes a good issue, as the attacks against the Conservatives that they are too much like their southern neighbors counterparts in the GOP and Trump have not seemed to land, despite Mr Poilievre’s rhetoric in more conservative language then perhaps Canadian politics is used to.
Now finally, is it over for Trudeau? The short answer, no. We have seen political comebacks more dramatic than this, in Canada and elsewhere in the english speaking world, but in order for Mr Trudeau to comeback he has a mountain to climb, he has to climb a 20 point lead that the Conservatives have, and has to ensure that his party is enthusiastic in a way that might be hard to do when attempting to gain a fourth term. But, it’s not impossible, and quite frankly if any Liberal party person could do it, it would be Mr Trudeau.
Comments