Labour one step closer to Landslide

Image produced by John Valat de Cordova for this Radical Times Story

LONDON, UK - Last night, as the results poured in from two constituencies electing new Members of Parliament a mere months before the next General Election, we got a finger on the pulse of the nation that is inexorably important in finding out whether Labour will unseat the Tory government and by how large of a margin. The results that came in yesterday gave us a definitive answer. Labour is undoubtedly going to win. and going to win big. This news is obviously a major blow to the 14-year long Conservative government that has shaped policy for decades, from Brexit to Austerity. Now the question is, how stinging of a defeat will this be for the Tories, and can they survive this new stint in opposition? The answer may shock you, and irk some Conservative operatives.

If these results were repeated on the National level, we may not only see a complete wipeout of the Conservative, but indeed a realignment of British politics that we haven't seen since Labour replaced the Liberals as the left-wing of British politics in the early twentieth century. Don't believe me? Look at these predicted results. Those parties that are currently not in government would attain 635 out of the nations 650 parliamentary constituencies, and not only would the Conservatives lose their fourteen year long stranglehold on political power in the nation, they would also be reduced to ashes, past the point of political no return, and past even holding onto the status of "Official Opposition" being relegated from it's exclusive status of being one of the two largest parties and instead being the third largest party in the parliament. This would be a Red Tidal wave of Labour support, and if the Conservative expect to hold onto power that they so cherish, they should need to completely upend the current political climate. Something that very few have even come close to achieving, perhaps only Jeremy Corbyn's surprisingly strong performance in the 2017 General Election the most contemporary example of this.

In immediate term impacts it seems that this may give more credibility to the Anti-Sunak faction of the Conservative party, perhaps forcing yet another Prime Minister before there is another General Election. It is as of yet unseen as to whether the country would respond to another conservative leader, but if the Tories were to elect a more 'traditionally' conservative leader then perhaps they would be able to regain some lost voters to the newly-ascendent Reform UK. That however, is yet unseen. And the instability of changing leadership just a few months before an election may prove to turn out negatively with members of other parties.

It is clear that these by-elections were an inexorably large gain for the opposition, and perhaps the next government. We can only wait and see how these events unfold to figure out of the Red Tidal Wave as foreshadowed by these by-elections will ever come to fruition.

By John Valat de Cordova