Macron Betrays the People; Sells France to the Far Right

After the French legislative elections this year, and after 50 days of attempting to form government, France finally has a new Prime Minister. President Emanuel Macron has just committed the biggest insult to the plurality of French voters and simultaneously sold France to the far right by not appointing a Prime Minister from the leftist Nouveau Front Populaire but rather a member of right-wing Les Republicains (Michel Barnier). So, how did we get here and what does it mean for France?

Macron's Gamble

The 2024 European Parliament election in France that occurred on the 9th of June delivered a resounding win for Jordan Bardella and his far right Rassemblement National (National Rally), winning 30 of the 81 seats allocated to France for European Union representation. This coincided with Macron's Ensemble (Together) coalition having its worst result to date, winning only 13 seats.

That same day, Macron dissolved the National Assembly in what commentators called a "desperate attempt to kill the far-right's momentum". The first round of elections were called for the 30th of June with the second round taking place a week later, on the 7th of July.

For people unfamiliar with the French legislative election system, they have two rounds of voting, whereby any candidate who garners an absolute majority will be immediately confirmed as the candidate representing that constituency. Should no candidate get an absolute majority, all candidates reaching 12.5% or more will be able to run in the second round (where they may drop out if they choose to do so, and this will become important later).

11th Hour Leftist Coalition

At this time, the major left wing parties in France: the Social Democrat Socialist Party (PS), the Democratic Socialist La France Insoumise (LFI), the French Communist Party (PCF) and the Greens (EELV) were fractured due to policy differences ranging from harnessing nuclear energy, to the wars in Gaza and Ukraine. Oliver Faure, the First Secretary of PS said that leftist unity must prevail to "create a popular front against the far right". And just like that, the next day after the election was called, all four major left wing parties and their minor party allies joined together to form the Noveau Front Populaire (New Popular Front in English). However, there were too many disagreements on their part on who would be their Prime Ministerial candidate in the event that the NFP win but a poll showed that a week before the election that voters much prefer a PS Prime Minister (44%) than a LFI Prime Minister (25%) as these two are the largest parties in the NFP.

The Republican crisis

One day after the NFP formed, the President of the Gaullist (named after Charles de Gaulle) Les Republicains (The Republicans), Eric Ciotti, announced that the Republicans will be forming an electoral alliance with the National Rally. Of course, Jordan Bardella and the National Rally President, Marine Le Pen, welcomed these new revelations with open arms while President Macron criticized the move.

Even more worrying for Ciotti, there was significant dissent in his own party. Senate Leader Gérard Larcher and National Assembly Leader Olivier Marleix demanded Ciotti's resignation. He locked down the Republican Headquarters, then, decided to begin waging an online campaign on Facebook to state why he did what he did and vent his frustration and his disagreement to the calls for his resignation. In what can only be described as the fury of de Gaulle from his grave, he was expelled by the political bureau and was effectively no longer the President after meeting elsewhere to unanimously remove him from his position and eventually expel him, although courts would later revoke both of those decisions.

What ensued was what could be called an effective battle for the party, which eventually culminated with the candidates supported by Ciotti which contested as Union de l'extrême droite (Union of the Far Right), while the dissidents supported by National Republican Nomination Commission contested as Republican candidates. The party leadership is still disputed to this day.

Alliance Platforms

The NFP ran an extraordinary campaign, disciplined in message calling for a fairer French economy and blamed Emmanuel Macron and his allies for the current state of the French economy. This included an economic populist programme which called for a €1600/month minimum wage (up 14%), reimplementing a solidarity tax on wealth and nationalizing control over water amongst other things. On foreign relations, the NFP ran on supplying weapons to Ukraine, recognizing the Palestinian State and the subsequent withdrawal of support of the Netanyahu government.

The outgoing presidential centrist Ensemble coalition, led by incumbent Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, pledged to doubling the military budget by 2030, banning access to social networks to those aged 15 and under and maintaining their far-right position on youth crime, which would abolish age as a mitigating circumstance for statutory penalties by default - meaning that judges could try children as adults. On foreign relations, President Macron did allude to deploying ground troops in Ukraine and that if Ensemble was to win again, they might authorize the deployment.

The far-right National Rally ran a hateful and spiteful campaign across France in an attempt to stomp out the left. Jordan Bardella declared himself to be the only person to stop LFI's Jean-Luc Melenchon, an infamous leftwing Eurosceptic, from winning the Premiership and urged "all patriotic forces of the Republic" to vote out the left. The National Rally proposed a way for retirees to return to work, privatizing the French media and opposed to tackling the climate crisis.

First Round, Triangulaires and Dropouts

The first round went as planned on the 30th of June, and as the results came in, many French hearts sank as the National Rally won the plurality of votes: 33.1% vs 28% (NFP) vs 20.8% (Ensemble). Because of the relatively even split of the vote, there were record high of triangulaires (306) in the second-round (which are contests with a three-candidates) mostly between the National Rally, NFP and Ensemble.

Because of this unique situation, there were a record number of "Republican Fronts". The Republican Front, in French politics, is typically, a rallying call for mainstream parties to have an electoral cordon sanitaire against the far-right political party, in this case, the National Rally. This can happen due to the two-round electoral system in National French politics for both legislative and presidential levels.

Immediately after the results of the first round were announced, Melenchon, the de facto NFP leader, announced that in all triangulaires that the NFP came third in - the NFP candidate will withdraw and drop out of the triangulaire, vowing "not a single vote for the National Rally", and asking voters to vote for the non-National Rally candidate in an effort to renew the cordon sanitaire and make it a straight one-on-one contest. Attal joined in with Melenchon saying that the cordon sanitaire was needed to "prevent the National Rally from having an Absolute Majority in the Second Round". President Macron was more nuanced urging voters to vote for "clearly democratic and republican candidates" in what plenty of commentators believe to signal a somewhat distrust with Melenchon's LFI. In the end, after the drop out period elapsed, there were only 89 triangulaires left.

Second Round and its aftermath

In the end, however, the Republican Front has managed to work its magic again, delivering a shock and upset victory for the left NFP coalition - with them winning a plurality of seats of 183 seats. The Presidential coalition, Ensemble, finished in second, only garnering 163 seats, and the National Rally (which includes members from the "Union of the Far Right") came in a distant third, winning a measly 143 seats. In the 577-seat French National Assembly, a coalition must obtain the support of at least 289 seats for a Parliamentary Majority.

Gabriel Attal submitted his resignation to President Macron the day after the election, but it wasn't until the 16th of July, more than a week later, did Macron accept the resignation of the French cabinet and allow to vote on the President of the National Assembly (Speaker of the Lower House) while having Attal remain as a caretaker Prime Minister.

Meanwhile, the NFP, which were shocked by their own standards, because they were not even expected to win plurality of the National Assembly. Therefore, they scrambled to find a Prime Ministerial candidate and they named her 16 days later, on the 23rd of July. Her name was Lucie Castets, Chief Financial Officer of Paris under Mayor Anne Hildago. Macron rejected her nomination, citing that he would name a Prime Minister after the Summer Olympics. They proposed her candidacy again, in late August, and Macron the name again, citing the political instability that this would cause as the other parties would file a no confidence motion against a NFP minority government. This has led to the Melenchon and the rest of the NFP not to speak to Macron unless it is to "form a government".

Barnier's Appointment and Implications

On the 5th of September, Michel Barnier was appointed as Gabriel Attal's successor. Barnier, a member of the Republicans and a staunch Gaullist, accepted the nomination and vowed to address the feelings of "injustice" and "anger".

The left-wing NFP expressed their rightful dissatisfaction calling this a "middle finger to French voters". This has even led to a fiery Melenchon to claim that the election was "stolen" from the French public as Macron did not respect the will of the people. PS has accurately claimed that Barnier has "neither political nor republican legitimacy" to govern France. The National Rally has welcomed Barnier, saying that the appointment is "respectful of National Rally voters" but has repeatedly expressed that their support will come after the general policy statement.

As the right welcomes the appointment of Barnier, Macron has boxed himself into an effective cohabitation with the far right. Instead of forming a centre-left coalition between NFP and Ensemble which might have ensured that some of his policies survived a NFP-led government in coalition talks, he has now made Bardella and Le Pen as kingmakers in French Politics - effectively selling the country to the far right.

Whether France does indeed fall to the far right and neo-fascism, one thing is for certain - Macron will be considered as an enemy of the left. If he does run for President again in 2027, and it comes down to a straight match between Macron and Le Pen, left-wing voters might just hold their nose and vote for him or just stay home and watch France fall. Only time will tell.