Sheinbaum and Progressivism: The Future of Mexico

President-Elect Sheinbaum will be sworn into office on October 1st this year (Today!) after winning above 60% of the vote in the Presidential election, an absolute triumph. As the first woman President in Mexico's history, and due to her experience as the no-nonsense progressive Mayor of Mexico City, she is poised to become the most progressive Mexican head of state in its history (and some suggest the most progressive leader in the world today); so how did we get here, and what can we expect from US-Mexican relations.

Primary Elections

In mid 2023, Juntos Hacemos Historia, in English "Together we will make history" coalition - a loose, progressive coalition made up from MORENA (National Regeneration Movement), Partido del Trabajo (Labour Party) and Partido Verde Ecologista de México (The Ecologist Party of Mexico), wanted a candidate to run for President - as the incumbent President, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador was term-limited by the constitution (Mexican presidents are limited to one, six year term); Claudia Sheinbaum emerged victorious in the primary for Juntos Hacemos Historia, winning a plurality of the vote at approximately 40%. However, after she was confirmed as the presidential candidate, the coalition became official and rebranded to Sigamos Haciendo Historia, "Let's keep making history" on November 19th.

Meanwhile, their rival big tent coalition - Frente Amplio por México, "Broad Front for Mexico" did their primary elections a bit differently. They chose their presidential candidate by an internal selection procedure. Candidates had to gather 150,000 signatures in the first round, with at least 1,000 signatures coming from 17 of the 32 states in Mexico. Eventually, however, Senator Xochitl Galvez, was chosen as their candidate and on November 11th, and the coalition adopted its current name of Fuerza y Corazón por México, "Strength and Heart for Mexico".

Candidate Records

Sheinbaum was coming into the race as a really successful mayor of Mexico City, the capital of Mexico - being inaugurated, in 2018, as the first woman mayor and the first of Jewish descent. As mayor, she successfully implemented a gun buyback programme to decrease gun related crimes whereby citizens can willingly give up their firearms regardless of legality in exchange for cash.

The programme recovered about 6,500 guns with slightly more than 1,300 being long-guns. Education-wise, she implemented the Mi Beca para Empezar or the "My Scholarship to Start" programme to give about 1.2 million children in Mexico City from preschool to secondary school, essentially ensuring that more and more got a shot at improving their lives through education and that was elevated to constitutional status in 2022. Most impressive of all was her handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, whereby she was one of the earliest to urge people to stay at home and isolate themselves and also to wear a face-mask when in public.

Meanwhile, Senator Galvez was making herself a maverick in politics. She would be frequently seen riding on her bicycle, her favourite mode of transportation, and usually dresses as in colorful huipils, a handmade embroidered garment characteristic of the native Indians that are there. As a national Senator, although officially independent, caucused with the conservative National Action Party who advocates for small government, free enterprise, and libertarian economic reforms which can and will be disastrous for the welfare of the public.

Campaign

Throughout the campaign, the top issue for voters was for security. Mayor Sheinbaum said that she would replicate her success as Mayor of Mexico City by strengthening the National Guard and making them first responders. She also emphasized that the National Guard, local police forces and prosecutors must be coordinated and improving investigating services and intelligence. Senator Galvez, however, did not agree with the deployment of the National Guard, but rather fund and raise the wages of the police with employing more prosecutors and building a university for aspiring police servicepeople.

Another issue for the election was Energy. The current policy was that energy produced in Mexico from the nationally owned petroleum company, PEMEX, to not export to other countries and Mayor Sheinbaum echoed the same sentiments. The Mayor emphasized energy independence of Mexico was of the utmost importance. The Senator, however, advocated for a more laissez-faire approach to Mexico's energy sector, proposing - at least - a partial privatization model and having more oil auctions and joint-ventures.

Results & What to Expect

As stated, Mayor Sheinbaum will be the next President of Mexico. With a majority in both Senate and Chamber of Deputies, she could be the most consequential and progressive Mexican President, at least for the next 3 years - where the midterm elections take place. A feminist, she will allow for a more progressive social policy, including the legalization of abortion and women's autonomy to choose if they want to terminate their pregnancy. On the economy, she has criticized neoliberal policies and will expand social welfare by increasing social spending. She intends to continue the universal spending from President López Obrador. She has a background in environmental policy, so the environment and energy is her forte. In her tenure as Minister of the Environment in Mexico City between 2000 and 2006, she saw a marked reduction in air pollution and created community ecological reserves. She will increase economic equality and social justice and that will benefit the Mexican economy as more and more people will pay taxes, which will fund government programmes and ensure the stability of Mexico, while also helping economic growth as well - which makes Mexico a great trade partner, not only locally, but internationally too.