SPD Wins Narrowly in Brandenburg State elections: An Analysis

On Sunday, the population of Brandenburg went to the polls to elect a new regional parliament. The centre-left Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (SPD) or "Social Democratic Party of Germany" narrowly won the election in a state region they have governed since reunification.

However, headlines were made to the one who came in second, the far-right, fascistic Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) "Alternative for Germany". The region is set for a four-way party representation with the SPD, AfD, the leftist Russophile Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) or the "Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance" and the centre-right Christlich Demokratische Union (CDU) or "The Christian Democratic Union". Notably, SPD's federal coalition partners, the free-market Freie Demokratische Partei (FDP) or "Free Democratic Party" and Die Grunen (Grune) or simply, "the Greens" lost all representation in the regional parliament. How did the SPD pull off a win and why did the far right fall short? Here is a political analysis of the state election:

Isolating Scholz 

Chancellor Scholz was not featured in SPD campaigning throughout the states, although his federal seat in the Bundestag, the German national parliament, is in Potsdam, the capital of Brandenburg. Why? He and his “traffic light" coalition made of the SPD (red), FDP (yellow) and Greens (green) is deeply unpopular, not just in Brandenburg, but nationally. His personal approval rating has hit 18% and his government was recently polled at 30%, where the FDP polled at just 4%, and failing to cross the 5% threshold for representation in the Bundestag. 

Due to that, Woidke - the SPD's leader in Brandenburg and incumbent Minister-President did not campaign with Chancellor Scholz and credit to Scholz, he did not, opting instead to go to the states to attend a session of the UNGA, United Nations General Assembly in New York with foreign minister Annalina Baerbock. It was a risky move which paid off. That is not an option for the federal government, however, because Scholz is so unpopular. There is already debate within the SPD about whether Scholz would be the best chancellor candidate for the federal election in 2025.

Unlikely endorsement and tactical voting

Isolating the Chancellor might not have been enough to put the SPD over the top, though, so another main reason why SPD came in first place was due to an unlikely ally in the CDU's Minister-President of Saxony, Michael Kretschmer. Just under a week before the state elections in Brandenburg, SPD Minister-President Dietmar Woidke received his endorsement from Kretschmer who hoped for a SPD win in Brandenburg stating that: "It is important that the first political force in this country is a democratic party that has given this country stability for over 34 years,". This essentially gave centre-right voters their “permission” they needed to turn out for the SPD. In fact, the amount of tactical voting is what many political analysts say was the main reason why Brandenburg did not fall into non-SPD hands for the first time post-reunification. This did, however, give the CDU their worst ever performance in the states that made up East Germany.

Demographics 

The SPD’s victory came largely as a result of support from voters over 60, 37% of whom supported the party, according to exit polls. OIder voters in the East tend to vote for Die Linke (Linke) or “The Left” as they remember fondly of the East German state and Die Linke is the continuation of the old leftist regime that used to hold absolute power in the East but even they knew that headwinds were changing. Their best bet was to come out and vote SPD to not waste their ballot, as they knew Die Linke would fall below the 5% needed for representation, and to show the SPD that they showed up and want government promises in return. 

The AfD led the field among voters between the ages of 30 and 59, underscoring the inroads it has made in the German electorate in recent years. Campaigning on fear of economic downturn and the immigration crisis compelled more anti-establishment folks and blue collar workers to vote for the AfD.

Final thoughts 

It is only a matter of time before the AfD takes over Germany if things go the way things are going now. This has to be a wake-up call for the SPD to end their lackluster tenure in the Bundestag and do something. Maybe, just maybe, we can stop the AfD from having control of Europe's strongest economy, without sounding like the AfD. Control the narrative and fight the far right head on, end the rise of the second Hitler party.