The Northern Strategy: How MADANI can break apart PAS strongholds

In a recent article by Focus Malaysia, it describes how due to the GISBH scandal - more and more pro-Madani Malay members of society see their own community as being the “biggest threat” to Islam. They are have publicly voiced their tiredness and their disapproval of all the culture war and race war that have been perpetrated by certain Members of Parliament and Members of Legislative Assemblies across the nation. Right here, is when the MADANI government and Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim can pounce - and help chip away at PAS strongholds.

The Theory

In my lifetime, and certainly my Dad's, there has never been a general election without social issues (race and religion) being the main front and centre of any Malaysian General Election. The furthest away from social issues that I've personally seen was the 14th General Election whereby the vote against the now-convicted criminal and former Prime Minister Najib Razak's corruption was fueled almost entirely on, well - ridding the country of corruption. However, this is where the problem started. UMNO at that time, as is now, championed Malay rights going into the election. However, long-forgotten PAS at the time was busy campaigning on Islamic issues in the North, which worked and they only lost three seats, in what was seen as a very successful election for the opposition, changing the government after over 60 years of Barisan Nasional rule. Since then, through the Sheraton Move and the rise of Perikatan Nasional, we saw PAS and Bersatu single-handedly winning a third of seats in Parliament in the 15th General Election in held in 2022, and are widely considered as a threat to Malaysia as a whole.

As mentioned above, there has never been a general election without race and religion playing an important factor or was one of the front and centre issues of the election campaign. However, with sentiments this disapproving of race, religion and culture wars perpetrated by politicians - perhaps, there is an opportunity to turn the narrative on its head and talk about economic issues and let me explain why.

In most, if not all, first world countries elect their leaders by asking themselves “Which Party/Politician do you trust on the economy?”. The candidate/party that wins out usually wins the election. For example, in the UK General Election held on the 4th of July, YouGov showed that more people trusted Labour on the economy than the Conservatives - and they won in a landslide election, winning 412 seats - up 214 seats. In the recently concluded Brandenburg election, the economy saw an uptick of 2.1% and the governing SPD won, albeit with a surging far-right AfD. In these two recent examples, it is shown that when there is an uptick in an economy and the population does better than when the government first got it, the government will win barring any other major factors that outpoll the economy, like corruption or political instability.

Malaysia's economy is doing relatively well. According to Bank Negara, GDP is up by 5.9% in the second quarter and according to the Department of Statistics, unemployment is 3.3%. Those are fantastic figures, so the MADANI government will logically win by a landslide, right? No, not at this moment in time. Although the numbers seem to be going up (or down, in the case of unemployment) - the majority of people don't feel it impacting their wallets. Although unemployment is down, underemployment is still the issue in Malaysia. Labour Minister, Steven Sim, said that the underemployment rate hit 37% and cited the poor education in terms of soft skills, amongst others, that prevails amongst the talent in STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics) and TVET (Technical and Vocational Education and Training) as the main reason why people are still underemployed.

Legislation for the Rest of the Term

For the rest of the term, the MADANI government has to implement pro-labour policies to actually help the people of Malaysia. The Prime Minister should encourage labour unions in workplaces, and dare I say, go as far as legislating on union issues like workers rights and union education in universities and colleges while also cracking down on wage theft to actually help the people that are struggling right now to get their fair wage to upskill themselves. He should also implement a stronger minimum wage and tie it to annual inflation so that workers' standard of living does not drop below the acceptable threshold and actually deliver for labour, the backbone of this country's economy.

Next, the MADANI government has to increase exports to strengthen the Ringgit in the long run and also to obtain more cash in the short run. One way to do that is to consolidate all the independent semiconductor industries and other E&E corporations to pump out as many E&E products as is possible within our economical means. E&E is our largest exporter, and it only makes sense to consolidate them as the government can then centrally plan and utilise economies of scale to produce more for cheaper, using the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC) as an example. Speaking of TSMC, once we are up to that level, we can rival TSMC to actually have an incentive to produce more and be more productive, earning Malaysia a lot of money which would then be distributed to the workers for their hard earned wage, and then to the government for more government spending. More government investment in the North would be beneficial to putting all our land to productive use, and to give more people, more well paying jobs.

Thirdly, we need to reform our education. For too long as our government been concerned about whether schoolchildren's socks are white or black or how should STEM subjects be taught: Malay or English. We need to help university students to garner soft skills and interpersonal skills that are crucial to working in a corporate job - public or otherwise. The more proficient we are at it, the more efficient our workforce would be and we can become economically competitive again; not out of neoliberalism like Mahathir in the 80s and 90s but out of a more, highly educated population which drives economies today.

Lastly, implement more tax reforms. Raising the income tax does more to harm the middle class than the wealthy, and hence, we need more types of taxes to adequately reflect these developments. A Capital Gains Tax on the sale of intangible goods like stocks and other securities would be useful, especially if the brackets are specifically targeted for high valuations. Perhaps even a Tax on Unrealized Capital Gains are good too, which provides an added layer of security against richer folks who want to keep their money in stocks and let it be subject to demands and supply (and will inevitable reap the benefits when the stock market rises). Be even bolder to implement a wealth tax that affects the top 1% in Malaysian society, surely they could spare a penny (or two!) to help the country that they've gained so much from.

The Strategy: Conquering the North

Assuming that MADANI does achieve the above, and some more - MADANI can tout their achievements in the North. In Northern areas, where they have invested heavily into industries that there is extensive demand for globally, like E&E - they can say with absolute certainty that it was by their hand (and not the invisible one) that gave them economic prosperity. By implementing extensive labour reforms and updating labour laws, they can improve the lives of the proletariats in the North with better working conditions and better pay. With the implementation of better education, more people will get educated which improves the quality and quantity of jobs and improve the economy overall - which they would inevitably reap.

If I was campaign chair, I would let PAS ramble on about race and religion - because, let's be completely honest, they have no coherent plan (at least from what I've seen), on the economy. With a strong economy, and labourers reaping the benefits of it - and their rhetoric only based on race and religion, their support will fumble. To a person who has seen their economic wellbeing improve, implementing an Islamic state or Syariah law does become a secondary priority, if a priority at all: assuming the population are rational actors; which they should be.

So, this is my call to MADANI. Do more for workers in this already-blossoming economy (numbers-wise) and don't be afraid to tax the wealthy to finance these ambitious goals. Economic populism usually wins out over repetitive social conservative rhetoric.