Who will be the next Tory leader?

Courtesy of The Radical Magazine

There are six combatants for this Conservative leadership election— their fourth in five years— the winner of which will likely lead the party to the upcoming 2029 general election. Although, let’s be real— we’re talking about the Conservatives here and famously Liz Truss didn't make it to the general election. To blitz through the candidates, we can go through them in the order least to most controversial, and then who might do better with the Tory membership, Tory MPs, and most importantly the general public, and why does it matter?

Least controversial is Mel Stride. Uniquely, he was prominent during the May government (2016–2019) and served briefly as Leader of the House of Commons for a month. He was a remainer.

Tom Tugendhat, a war veteran and centrist backbencher from his election in 2010, rose to prominence in the 2022 leadership election and subsequently gained cabinet positions in both Truss and Sunak’s government— though, he might not want to boast about that. He was a remainer.

Priti Patel, probably the most well-known, was Home Secretary during Boris Johnson’s COVID cohort of cabinet ministers. She contributed to Britannia Unchained, co-authored by Liz Truss as the basis for the 2022 minibudget. She launched the unworkable Rwanda asylum plan and breached the ministerial code with alleged bullying allegations. She was a brexiteer.

James Cleverly, enjoyer of Warhammer, is another former Home Secretary and Foreign Secretary, although both under Sunak. He oversaw the response to the October 7th attacks and Israeli invasion of Gaza during his tenure, and is seen as a moderate in the party, very much a continuation of Sunak-esque politics. He was a brexiteer.

Kemi Badenoch, warring with Doctor Who in her campaign video, is a favourite to win. Rising during the Johnson years, she became Business and Equalities Secretary and used her office to continue the culture war. She was a brexiteer.

Robert Jenrick is a controversial figure on the Tory right. He resigned as Immigration minister believing that the Rwanda bill did not go far enough in stopping illegal migration, and has been accused of islamophobia after his reactions to the July riots.

Notably absent is Suella Braverman— Home Secretary under Truss and Sunak. She is on the right of the Tory spectrum, spearheaded Rwanda, described immigration as an 'invasion', alongside being sacked twice over ministerial code breaches. She sat out the leadership amid rumours of joining ReformUK, which did not materialise.

For a clue at the result, look to the 2022 elections. It was clear that the Tory membership preferred the more right-wing and populist candidate, Liz Truss, and ignored Sunak's plea for sensible economics. This benefits people like Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick who take advantage of culture wars and immigration issues and ideological policies, which could drown out somebody like Mel Stride who strives for boring stability.

To get to the membership vote however, they need to make it to the top two within their remaining few members of parliament. While the Boris-loving right-wing Tories elected in 2019 are gone, due to their catastrophic defeat, the right-wing still has a large base within the parliamentary party. But generally MPs who care more about electability and policy might prefer somebody like Priti Patel or James Cleverly who are being more realistic about challenges, are well known, and has ministerial experience.

Unfortunately for the Conservative party, I truly fail to see how any of these six people become Britain’s next prime minister. Despite myself having reservations about Labour’s ability to hold onto victory next time round, the Conservative party’s image is rotten far beyond leadership and many of these people were in government around the great polling collapse of Johnson and Truss’s premierships.

Regardless of whether somebody from the left or right of the party wins, the plague of ReformUK doesn't go away, it has too much momentum and strategic interest to attack the Tories. The next leader has a very difficult task after Starmer has a full five years in office.

For now, the Conservatives are kind of irrelevant with a massive Labour landslide, so why is it important? because the new Tory leader will shape the kinds of discussions going into the next election whether its on economic policy, social issues, or some new crisis. Leaders also decide their MP selections to an extent. Boris Johnson used his power to kick out a significant chunk of liberal left-wing remainer Tories before the 2019 election, which has had a lasting impact to the party as a whole to the present day.

Whether these leadership contenders stick to their promises is unknown though. Tom Tugendhat has made a public shift from being a centrist backbencher to a Truss cabinet minister and supporter of leaving the European Court of Human Rights (a fundamental position on the Tory right, to which people like Badenoch would argue for— an obstacle to the Rwanda plan) while somebody like Patel who is seen as more right-wing has said she would not do that.

Whoever they choose to go for, I hope it is a moderate leader. The key strategist in me would pray for somebody like Badenoch: so uncharismatic and so right-wing that, potentially their base mixes with ReformUK, alienating more and more centrist voters but not winning any disillusioned ones back, and losing the next election by a greater margin. However, a Badenoch leadership would see PMQs every week focus on unimportant issues, the next traditionalist right-wing panic, and misinformation. Somebody like Patel, I would hope, may choose to centre politics back to the centre again. More one-nation-Conservative MPs, focus on actually scrutinising the new government, and setting up a proper conservative opposition rather than a populist one.